MLB Opening Day 2008 Countdown

Monday, January 28, 2008

40-40 club

Off the top of your head, name an exclusive baseball milestone. 500 homers. Check. 300 wins. Check. 4,000 strikeouts. Check. Seven no-hitters. Check. But what about the 40-40 club?

Of all the baseball milestones and benchmarks that are religiously celebrated by baseball fans, the 40-40 club should rank among the most exclusive. Yet, for some strange reason, it’s not nearly as high among the pantheon of great individual baseball achievements as its difficulty merits.

If there ever was a ‘Members Only’ club in baseball, the 40-40 club would be it. And it should come with a complimentary ‘Members Only’ jacket.

The number of players that occupy this exclusive penthouse wouldn’t even get you a five-finger discount at your local bodega. Who fills this elite list?

Canseco. Rodriguez. Bonds. Soriano. That’s it.

I know, I know. A few others have come close. Willie Mays (36-40). Bobby Bonds (oh-so close at 39-43). Eric Davis (37-50). Darryl Strawberry (39-36). A near-miss by Vladimir Guerrero (39-40). Carlos Beltran (38-43, in two leagues no less).

In fact, the 40-40 club has such an exclusive cachet attached to it that hip-hop mogul, Jay-Z, named his ritzy Manhattan sports bar “The 40-40 Club.” While you’re there, be sure to check out the “Girls Night Out” package offered by the Last Don of hip-hop. Now that’s big pimpin, Hovah!

Now, keep in mind all of these have occurred in the modern roto-era, though Canseco’s 1988 stats have come under closer scrutiny recently given his penchant for anabolic steroids.

Which reminds me … did anyone happen to see Jose Canseco on the World Series of Poker telecast on ESPN a few weeks back? After he lost, it looked as though he was actually looking around the room for people to notice him and approach him. Oh, how the mighty have fallen!! From 40-40 to $40 buy-ins. From tagging Madonna to tagging along with Phil Hellmuth. Maybe he’ll have his own reality show on VH1 someday and everything will come full circle for him. I’m rooting for him.

I don’t care what you say, I’m holding onto Canseco’s ’86 Donruss Rated Rookie card … just in case. It’s in a safe, and somewhat nostalgic place right now, in a self-storage facility sitting inside an old Le Coq Sportif shoebox with 150 Gregg Jefferies ’88 Fleer rookie cards, some SportFlics, a few Transformers, an old pair of Vuarnet sunglasses, and some random (and poorly-written, I might add) love notes from middle school romances.

So why should a fantasy owner pay attention to a club that only has four members?
For starters – and for keepers – it’s a fraternity that just may grow in 2008. And if you can snag one of these potential stat-stuffers for your fantasy team this season, you’re going to be really happy you did.

Since 1922, there have been 51 30-30 seasons posted by 31 different players. Ten of them are from guys named Bonds. Four from Soriano. Three from the oft-overlooked Howard Johnson. Two from Ron Gant. Two from Bobby Abreu Two from underachiever Raul Mondesi. And two from another unlikely source, Jeff Bagwell. Even Dante Bichette, Shawn Green and Jose Cruz, Jr. pledged this fraternity once.

In 2007, three fantasy studs got past the velvet rope and were let in by the muscle to the 30-30 club. Can you name them? I’ll give you a hint. They’re all infielders. They all play in the National League. Two of them play in the NL East. The other one’s middle name is Emil and counts Barry Larkin among his childhood heroes.

Yes, that’s right, David Wright (NYM), Jimmy Rollins (PHI) and Brandon Phillips (CIN).
So what will it take for a fantasy stud to join the 40-40 club in 2008?

First, it’s got to be a player that’s relatively young. The older a player gets, the less likely he is to risk his career and job security by stealing bases.

Second, he’s got to play for an aggressive, station-to-station, offensive-minded team. The manager has to be an advocate of the running game. No Earl Weavers need apply. This makes the National League a more likely breeding ground for a 40-40 candidate.
Third, it wouldn’t hurt if the player’s team is out of the pennant race early in the season. A player in the heart of a playoff run might not risk outs on the base paths or by swinging for the fences. Once a team’s season is shot, a 40-40 candidate could focus on individual stats with near impunity. In fact, it’s a great way for a losing team to put fans in the seats.

Lastly, you’d have to avoid injury. It’d have to be a player who plays in at least 150 games. In recent years, 30 home runs has become almost a mundane achievement. Even 40 dingers is a realistic goal for a lot of guys. It’s usually the steals component of the equation that gets ‘em. Most of the guys that put up prodigious home run totals are big, husky men. Like Ryan Howard. And Prince Fielder. And while they can pound the ever-living snot out of a baseball, they’re not exactly a terror on the base paths.

So who does that leave in the running for 2008? Well, Wright, Phillips and Rollins stand out as obvious candidates. Carlos Beltran and Soriano could certainly join the club under the right circumstances. If the stars were aligned, and all the right strip clubs were open, maybe A-Rod could take another crack at it. Even Bobby Abreu might have a shot at it.

Anyone else? Maybe my boy, Curtis Granderson? Or Chris Young, though he needs to work on that .237 batting average to have a shot. And don’t sleep on Hanley Ramirez. Speaking of sleep, my deepest 40-40 sleeper is Brewers OF Corey Hart, … though he might not even have a starting gig going into 2008. If he hits 30-30, I’ll … I’ll “wear my sunglasses at night” …

In between bouts of dementia, and day-dreaming about someday joining a cult, David Gignilliat is a freelance writer for the thewestbias.com. He can be reached at uvadavidg@gmail.com and at his other online home, Quixotica (http://quixoticawords.blogspot.com), where he makes up silly words.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

AL West: Where Else to Start?

Of course I start with the AL West. For one, the Angels are my favorite team. For two, this is the West Coast, and we are SEVERELY underrated in baseball, thanks to the over-hyping of the East by most sports commentary. And third, the AL is the prime place these days. So it is here that I will begin to analyze what will come for 2008.

The AL West last season was basically dominated by the Angels, who led the division all but about 10 days of the season. Seattle actually put on a fairly good show for the better part of the middle of the season, but their inability to be consistent brought them down (they had some good 8 game winning streaks, but were generally accompanied by some long losing streaks as well… bunch of streakers…ha!).

I don’t see a whole lot of change to that dynamic this year either. And here is why:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The move of Tony Reagins to GM definitely made a splashing impact in the off-season. For the better part of the last few years, Bill Stoneman has been perceived as a contemplator, one who thinks more than acts, which showed in trading times throughout the seasons. So the transactions this off-season definitely headlined. I’m still speculative as to whether or not I think Reagins is doing the right thing here. It’s not so much the free agent signing of Torii Hunter that I question. Though I do find it a bit, shall we say, “excessive,” to have made this deal. I understand the need for a power bat in the line-up; the Angels goal is to bolster for the off-season, since they have fairly good chances of dominating their division for the second year in a row. However, with last year’s signing of Matthews Jr. for an extensive contract in center field (and he is quite amazing at that position, just as Gold Glove worthy as Hunter, in my eyes, had he been healthy more often), I see Hunter as an excess that somewhat throws off the dynamic of the Angels’ typical outfield. The idea, so I’ve read, is to keep Hunter in center, and to rotate Anderson, Guerrero, and Matthews from left and right and the DH position in the lineup. But look who else is on the roster – still no trading of any of the other outfielders, having avoided arbitration with Juan Rivera, and still no trades involving Reggie Willits, who I personally adore beyond all measure (how many rookies do you know get their name chanted every time they come up to bat? The guy plays ball like it should be played – with heart and soul and drive. Okay, I’ll get off my soapbox now). And there are a number of others that can handle the outfield. So there is quite a bit of depth there, and if injuries occur, that is a good thing. But in all, excessive is the word I’ll maintain. The trade that really still bothers me is the Garland-Cabrera swap. On any of the major sports commentary websites, the trade was generally seen as most favorable for Chicago. The argument is that Cabrera is over 30 and his contract would be up in another year, and this would allow younger players the experience at short stop, while bringing in another pitcher to the starting rotation. The way I see it, everyone is always saying how great the Angels farm system is for pitching, if not the best in the American League (the Diamondbacks being the best in the National). So I don’t understand the need to bring a sixth man into the rotation (since they still maintain that Santana, despite a VERY frustrating season, will bounce back and be amazing as ever) whose numbers aren’t exactly stellar, when there are people like Adenhart in the farm system, and those like Saunders who have had to prove themselves time and time again. As far as using this as a springboard for the Miguel Cabrera deal, it fell short. And now, the Angels are out the most stable short stop of last season, and probably what I would consider their team leader. Now, the middle infield will be left to Izturis and Aybar, which does not concern me too much outside of the fact that I hope they find a way to keep Iz’s bat in the line up regardless of where he’s playing. He. Is. CLUTCH. Aside from these minor things, I think the Angels basically have it in the bag as far as the division title in 2008, unless some major injuries make some major holes in the chemistry. But they are really so far loaded with talent in all aspects – starting rotation, infield, obviously outfield, bench, and hopefully an injury-free bull pen – that I find that difficult to imagine.

Seattle Mariners: As far as previous deals, the best thing they ever did was taking Adrian Beltre from the Dodgers three years ago. I’ve read a few places that he’s been considered a bit of a disappointment, though I can’t really see how. Yeah, so the Mariners haven’t figured out how to outdo the Angels; I don’t see how that can all be landed on Beltre. I guess they figured having him would do it all, but you can’t put team responsibility on one player. He’s done his job, and hits when it counts, but he can only do so much as one player. He brings power to the hot corner that everyone else in the division is basically searching for – in fact, the Mariners probably have the most power in the corners with Sexson and Beltre than any team in the AL West. They also have Johjima and Suzuki, who are also strong players, and as of the off-season, still have much of their lineup intact. They did lose Jose Guillen, but as far as that being an issue I don’t see why everyone thinks it will effect the team so drastically. If anything, solid pitching has been the plague of the Mariners’ existence, especially since Jeff Weaver moved from Anaheim to Seattle. They have tried to solve this issue in the off-season, adding Dickey and Silva to the lineup with Washburn and Hernandez, but were unable to land Kuroda like they desperately hoped. But my diagnosis? Problems with inconsistency, just as in 2007, but I can’t tell you why or where it comes from for them, it’s just something they’ve had to deal with and I don’t see how they’ll fix it just yet.

Oakland Athletics: 2007 was a season plagued by injuries for the As. For example, Travis Buck, a rookie last season, had his season cut short by injuries. But by this spring training, he will be the most experienced outfielder. That should send warning signals. This will definitely be their rebuilding years. I can’t believe the names that poured out of that team. Obviously the big move was Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks for a package of top prospects. This may have been a good move, considering Arizona has one of the best farming systems in baseball. However, it’s what else accompanied this in the off-season. Kotsay was traded for prospects Devine and Richmond to make up for the loss of pitching; Swisher to the White Sox for three more prospects (trying to solve the domination of lefties in the lineup); midseason losses of Bradley and Kendall; the letting go of Kielty and Loaiza on waivers; trading Scutaro, Stewart, and Piazza. I can’t even think of any names that still exist with that team. That pretty much wipes the slate as clean as it can possibly get. And look at the pattern of trades – all for prospects. Which means, there won’t be much experience on this team this season. Even the returning guys aren’t all that experienced. Blame it mostly on the fact that the A’s farming system has been getting thinner and thinner. Hopefully, for them that is, all these prospects will pay off – if not, assume more movement and rebuilding to ensue. The A’s, in this state, will probably be lucky if they can pull over the Rangers this season. But I may be surprised, and these guys may pull out some ridiculous magic – but I don’t put too much stock in that.

And finally, Texas Rangers: Yet another rebuilding year for these guys. It really started for them at the end of 2007, when they started playing nothing but bench players and minor leaguers brought up for the experience. And who could blame them? They were back by double-digits from the lead, and were eliminated pretty early. Why waste your time playing losing combinations, if you can get a head start on finding winning ones? I think that was probably a smart move for them, and may work out and favor them in standings over the Athletics. The off-season for the Rangers has been dominantly centered on pitching, with the addition of Jennings, Guardado, Wright, and Fukumori. They also acquired Broussard from Seattle in December, along with Milton Bradley. The experience may help them, especially with the younger prospects elsewhere. They also have some options with Saltalamacchia and Laird, two pretty stable players. They also have some repeat names in the lineup in Kinsler, Young, Catalanotto, and Blalock. In all, I actually think they have a more solid chance than the A’s, and though that may not be saying much at this point, it’s a start. Uncertainty really lies in the exact makeup of the starting rotation, as well as in the production of the outfield. The infield will provide some depth, thanks to the more experienced players, but the bench may have some uncertainties in a lot of inexperienced prospects.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Miss You Before You’re Gone

The Hustle by Danny Russell

In less time than it takes waiting in line for a plain frozen yogurt with blueberries at Pinkberry, the Los Angeles Dodgers will begin their 60th and final season of spring training at Vero Beach. After more than half a century of sweat, morning thunderstorms, fungos, and Sandy Koufax pitching tips under the hot Florida sun, the artists formerly known as the Brooklyn Bums will lace ‘em up for the last time from the Atlantic coast. Bummer dude.

The boys of summer sever yet another tie to their colorful Trolley Dodger heritage and fly the coop from the city that serves as headquarters for the Piper Aircraft Corporation after 55 seasons in Holman Stadium, which opened in 1953. Adios Dodgertown. Later Grapefruit League. See ya snow birds.

Next spring, they head to the Wild West to christen a brand new 10,000 seat $76 million facility in the Phoenix suburb of Glendale, Arizona. The 2009 Dodgers will share their fresh digs with the Chicago White Sox. Did I just say share? It seems kind of weird for a team with such a storied and prestigious past as the Dodgers to be sharing their training facility with another team. It’s sort of like time-sharing a new convertible with your mom. Or like wearing someone else’s BVD’s. Eew… Yuck.

Don’t get me wrong, team owner Frank McCourt has plenty of reasons for heading west, in fact, millions of them. For instance, televised Cactus League games will most likely attract more eyeballs because they’ll finally be playing in the same time zone. And southern California hardball nuts will be able to daytrip to camp or take off for a weekend vacation to check out their beloved former Brooklyn Bridegrooms.

And, of course, there’s nothing like that new stadium smell. Ahh. But still. What about tradition? Heritage? Loyalty? Your own parking spot? I never liked the Lakers and Clippers or the Jets and Giants playing in the same buildings. It doesn’t seem right. But that’s only a small reason why I’m waxing so un-poetically about the past.

The real reason I feel so nostalgic about the Dodgers leaving the tropical confines of Vero Beach is because it reminds me of something very sad (besides steroids) that looms over all of baseball – All too soon, and much to my sorrow, the Dodgers will be losing their richest, greatest, classiest link to their majestic past - Vin Scully.

Mr. Scully enters his 58th season and, who knows, maybe his last season as the voice of the Dodgers. He turns 82 on November 29th. And, just like I still hope for kids everywhere that Santa Clause is real, I hope for our sake that the Bronx native Vincent Edward Scully never retires. Future generations ought to be able to get to know him too. But even fairytales have a conclusion. All seasons come to an end. And, despite his amazing longevity he is, after all, only human. Sadly, at some point the bell tolls for all of us and inevitably Vinny will have to vacate his magical position behind his microphone. At most, he’ll step down within a season or two.

As Vinny says, "I caaan't believe it!"

So, here’s some friendly advice for anyone within earshot. And this goes for all you Dodger haters too. We know you’re out there. Take a little time from your hectic life and catch Sir Vin calling a game or two with his gifted smooth voice before it is too late. Put down the crackberry, (and Pinkberry) stop texting, get off those whacked websites, and find an afternoon or evening to just sit back and listen to Vin weave his fanciful yarns before he’s gone. Listen to him, stream him, podcast, him, watch him, steal him off your neighbors basic cable; no matter how you get him, just promise yourself one thing – you’ll try.

Wash the car, head to the beach, go driving, jogging, whatever; as long as soothing Vin accompanies you. Your stress will melt away with each golden syllable. The still red-headed Mr. Scully’s perfect style is somehow both erudite and folksy at the same time. He can work in world history, Hollywood tales, a player’s family tree, Shakespearean sonnets, a birthday wish here and there, and yet never misses a single pitch. Then, between innings, you’ll hear his long running Farmer John commercials that, I know for a fact, have converted countless starving vegetarians back to meat. No one can resist his enticing and endearing Dodgerdog promos. Mmm…Dodgerdogs.

Trust me, listening to the words, wisdom, and poetry of the former Fordham University standout will add rings to your tree and put a smile on your face. And, as a bonus, for the first time since 1988, the Dodgers actually have a shot at getting back into the Fall Classic. This is one of the most anticipated seasons in years for Big Blue. But much more on that later this season.

For now, I’m happy I found you, or you found me, and I hope that you take my counsel to relax a spell with Saint Vincent before his honeyed voice goes silent. He’s the sweetest man on the airwaves. Vinny, I miss you before you’re gone.

On a personal note – I look forward to you coming back to http://www.thewestbias.com/ and reading our columns, especially my little feature, The Hustle. I promise to be honest, share my feelings, think before I write, and tell you everything I know about all things sports. You’ll get my humble opinions, ridiculous rants, and silly tirades. Cockamamie theories, new ideas, and half-baked predictions; in other words, the very best I have to offer. I know you won’t agree with my perspective all the time, hell, you might not ever agree with me, but I truly welcome your comments, complements, and critiques. Just try to be fair and informed.
Remember, stayed tuned to Vinny, read The Hustle by Danny Russell, and give peace a chance.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

My First Article – and a Brief Disclaimer…

I don’t claim to know everything about anything, especially a sport like baseball with such a wealth of history and strategy and player diversity. However, I do know what I think about it. I will add the warning label now that I am by no means an expert in all things baseball, and I will occasionally be human (oh God no!) and make mistakes and say something that may not make sense, be right, or be popular. But so long as you care to read, I’ll keep talking. And even if you don’t care to read, well I’ll just keep talking anyway!

Oh, and of course, expect my typical outbursts on how much I hate the prominent baseball writers’ dominantly East Coast bias. They WILL occur, and my own West Coast bias will be just that – strongly biased.

Right now, baseball seems to be in a bit of a funk. And no, I’m not talking about it being the off-season. I’m talking about all the conspiracies and unfair advantage seeking and the illegal usages that have plagued baseball – and really, most sports if you go back and actually LOOK for it – which have become a central focus the last few years, and especially this off-season since the release of the Mitchell Report. Now there are two ways I can go about this as an analyst. I can beat you to death with facts, opinions, and senseless musings on this topic, like most people will do on most sports news and commentary sites for the rest of the off-season and probably well into the regular season… OR I can actually talk about baseball. So this is all I will say about the Mitchell Report and steroids in baseball as it all stands as of this moment:

It is generally human nature to look for a sure-fire advantage over others. Some people have that natural advantage without having to go outside themselves; others… well, not so much. What happens? People look for an external means of getting ahead. This isn’t just drug use or baseball related. EVERYTHING works this way – insider trading, government conspiracies, studying the answers before a test… everyone has done something of this nature, I don’t care how innocent. Yes, things might not exactly be as illegal as say pumping yourself with toxins that totally alter the natural abilities of your physical state, but hey, you get the idea. So as far as making this whole steroid issue the big front runner of the off-season or the regular season still yet to come, I think we’re making a mistake in sports news. Yes, steroids are bad, and those that illegally went about using (note that HGH was not banned until 2004? Or 2005? Point being, people were using it before it was banned, so they can’t be held responsible for what was banned AFTER) should be punished, and probably will be. But what did we do in focusing all this attention on something negative? We detracted from the actual sport itself, and the people that play it fairly and incredibly well. Will baseball be forever tainted by steroids use? Only if we focus all our attention on negativity. But I say, we get off the train of pessimism here and go back to caring about the actual sport itself and not the corruption of some individuals who don’t define the totality of the sport itself anyway. We need to go back to paying attention to the players that do it right, and especially now in the off-season, the trades, acquisitions, and changes that we hope to see in teams that will make everything more exciting and competitive.

This is all I plan on saying about this issue in-depth. I feel like the sport itself needs to go back to being frontrunner, and that’s what I plan to do with my analysis. You want to talk steroids? Go ahead. As for me, I’m going back to talking about baseball.